هل سيتساقط الثلج في إسطنبول هذا الشتاء؟ توقعات 2026-2027

Probably, but only briefly, and not on a date you can plan around. Istanbul gets snow on about 10 days in an average year, according to a 2024 study of the city's long-running weather stations, with January and February the likeliest months. For this winter, the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) expects every month from December to February to be 1 to 3°C warmer than normal, and meteorologist Orhan Şen told Milliyet on 4 November that snow in the city would have to wait until January, with perhaps a day or two of snow on high ground such as Çamlıca. If snow is the point of your trip, go up a mountain: our Bursa and Uludağ tour from Istanbul runs from $90 per person.

What MGM's 2026-27 winter outlook says

MGM's seasonal forecast, updated on 5 November 2026 and based on the ECMWF seasonal model, points to a mild winter in Istanbul:

A seasonal forecast describes a whole month, not single days, and MGM notes that small-scale local events may not be captured, so a mild month can still bring a snowy morning. MGM says it updates the outlook in the second week of each month; for a specific trip, its five-day forecast is the one to watch.

How often does it snow in Istanbul?

MGM's public climate tables for Istanbul list temperatures and rainy days but no count of snowy days. The best long-term figure comes from a 2024 study in the journal Atmosphere, which used MGM records from five stations, Sarıyer, Kilyos, Şile, Florya and Kadıköy, the oldest going back to 1929: snow fell on 9.6 to 10.7 days a year, depending on the station.

Snow often does not settle, and MGM's long-term averages for Istanbul (1950-2025) show why:

Even in January and February the average night stays above freezing, so snow that whitens the city at dawn is often slush by the afternoon. Big storms still happen: MGM's deepest snow on record for Istanbul is 41 cm, measured on 9 March 1987.

A Hürriyet analysis of MGM data, published on 30 December 2025, found snow on New Year's Day in only 5 of 89 years, and on New Year's Eve in only 3.

Which months and districts see the most snow

January and February are the likeliest months, and December and March both have record lows below −4°C. The heaviest falls come on cold north-easterly winds off the Black Sea: of 129 Black Sea-effect snow episodes found in Istanbul winters from 1971 to 2006, 111 arrived with north-easterly flow, according to a study in the International Journal of Climatology.

Height and location matter. Before New Year 2026, Professor Mikdat Kadıoğlu told Hürriyet that hills such as Çamlıca and Alemdağ could see snow, while coastal Beşiktaş and Üsküdar had only a 20 to 30 per cent chance of snow on the ground. When snow came on Monday 19 January 2026, it settled in Sarıyer but turned to rain in Şişli, Hürriyet reported.

What snow does to flights

Recent winters show what heavy snow can do:

If your trip ends with a long-haul connection in January or February, check your airline's website the evening before and, if you can, keep a spare night at the end.

Ferries, roads and sightseeing on a snow day

During the February 2025 storm, some ferry services were suspended for a while, while metro, tram and bus services ran without major delays on 20 February, Hürriyet Daily News reported. In January 2022, drivers were told they could not enter Istanbul from Thrace, Al Jazeera reported.

Photo: Melih1969, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

On a snowy day in the city:

• Travel by rail where you can; the metro kept running during the February 2025 storm.
• Swap a cruise for indoor sights, listed in our Istanbul in winter guide.
• Keep cruises and day trips flexible by a day, and wear boots with grip.

Where to see snow near Istanbul

If you want snow rather than slush, go up:

• Uludağ, above Bursa. At 2,543 m, it is the highest mountain in the Marmara region and the classic snow day trip from Istanbul. Read our Uludağ day trip guide and the Uludağ mountain page.
• Kartepe, in Kocaeli. The closest ski centre to Istanbul. Our Kartepe snow day page explains the ski centre and the cable car, and the Sapanca day trip covers the lake below.
• Bolu. Home to the Kartalkaya ski centre and Lake Abant. MGM forecast 5 to 20 cm of snow for Bolu and the high ground of the western Black Sea on 7 and 8 November 2026. See our Abant and Bolu trip.

MGM's ski centre page gives five-day forecasts and snow depths for Uludağ, Kartepe and Kartalkaya, and we check it before every snow trip. For snow on the fairy chimneys, see our winter balloon trip to Cappadocia.

Tours that cover this

• Bursa & Uludag Tour from Istanbul: Ferry, Cable Car & Lunch: from $90 per person, 8 hours.
• Private Bursa Day Tour from Istanbul: Guide & Private Van: from $100 per person, 12 hours.
• Sapanca Lake & Masukiye Day Tour from Istanbul, Lunch and Pickup: from $70 per person, 10 hours.
• Istanbul Old City Private Tour: Hagia Sophia, Topkapi & Grand Bazaar: from $200 per person, the indoor plan for a snowy day in the city.

No prepayment needed: pay on the tour day. Send us your dates on WhatsApp and we will check the mountain forecast before confirming your Bursa and Uludağ day. For private guiding inside the city, our sister team at Get Istanbul Tours works only in Istanbul.

Frequently Asked Questions